Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Two Out of Three

According to the Houston Chronicle, prior to September 11, 2001, the Federal Emergency Management Agency warned that the three most likely, most catastrophic disasters facing the United States were, in descending order:

  1. A terrorist attack on New York City.
  2. Flooding in New Orleans.
  3. A San Francisco earthquake.
Two of those three scenarios have now come to pass.

In addition to FEMA's warning of scenario number one, Pres. Bush's Aug. 6, 2001, Presidential Daily Briefing explicitly warned him that al Qaeda was targeting New York City.

We know that Pres. Bush did nothing in response -- he said the warnings weren't specific enough. We also know, thanks primarily to the New Orleans Times-Picayune, that President Bush responded to scenario number two not with a plan of action to save New Orleans, but with funding cuts and diversion of resources that crippled prevention and reaction efforts.

So, what about number three? When a devastating earthquake opens the earth beneath San Francisco, what steps will Pres. Bush have taken, in response to the warning he got four years ago?

Here are some of them...

Every year since the 2001 warning from FEMA, Pres. Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress have appropriated less than one fifth of the previously authorized budget for the Advanced National Seismic System. What does the ANSS do? It studies earthquakes in order to improve quake-resistant building techniques and develop warning systems.

Pres. Bush also made good on his threat to eliminate Project Impact, a federal disaster-mitigation agency. Early in 2001, he had announced he would eliminate the agency -- so he could spend its $20 million budget elsewhere -- on the very same day Project Impact was credited with saving lives.

Then, just this year, after reducing the Federal Emergency Management Agency from a cabinet-level position, he announced that FEMA will no longer have anything to do with disaster preparedness, the very function for which it won so much praise since its rejuvenation after its lackluster response to Hurricane Andrew during the first Pres. Bush's term in office.

The list goes on. We don't know exactly how many professional and emergency responders may be far from San Francisco right now due to service in Iraq. We don't know exactly how many volunteer responders haven't been trained due to insufficient funding.

And we can never know the full impact of all these decisions -- financial, political decisions -- until it's too late. Until the third scenario out of three comes to pass. And, no, it's not right to blame Pres. Bush, or anyone, for hurricanes and earthquakes. But he and other politicians spend millions during their campaigns to convince us of their intelligence, foresight and dedication to the task of keeping us safe. That means they have to think about the threats that face us. It means paying attention to science, and heeding the warning signs -- particularly when they come in the convenient form of federal reports. And it certainly means taking measures to prevent or mitigate those threats. Pres. Bush has done none of these things, and for that we can blame him, and we should.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

Bush and cronie's priorities are the enrichment of rich americans like themselves and the increase of economic power for the enterprises that provide them with their riches. They dry our wetlands so they can sell that swampland instead of allowing it to protect flood and hurricane prone costal areas. They reap/rape our forests by giving away the wood and land. They make war because it's good for business. They promote their own ideas as truth without regard for science or the benefit of the average humans. They take from the programs that benefit the masses of humans because by taking some from all of us, the few of them can profit so much. It's time for it to stop! Please, before their power is too great and we all are lost.

Anonymous said...

I GUESS IF EARTH WERE HIT BY METEORITES BUSH SHOULD HAVE SOMEHOW PREPARED THE WORLD TO EITHER DEFLECT THEM OR DESTROY THEM BEFORE HITTING EARTHS SURFACE,ANYTHING SHORT OF THAT WOULD BE JUSTIFICATION TO TO COMPLAIN OF HIS UNPREPAREDNESS.YOU GUYS AND GALS AT AAR REALLY SHOULD GET A LIFE.DO SOME HEAVY LIFTING.YOUR PROPAGANDA IS OLD HAT ALREADY,IT WAS FUN FOR A WHILE ----NOW YOUR BROADCASTING IS UGLY,LOW LIFE,HATEFULL,STUFF.
YOU CAN`T AND WON`T WIN WITH THAT SORT OF GARBAGE.
BY THE WAY MY DAD WAS A DEDICATED, UNION MADE, LIBERAL DEMOCRAT FROM BROOKLYN AS WAS I------NO MORE!

Steven said...

Nice fact based job supported by good solid empirical evidence, Jonathon-- I gave ya an honorable mention on my own blog and appreciate your efforts.

Anonymous said...

good old bush
he and his cronies have responded about as well for post katrina as they did for post iraq invasion

as men without a clue

Anonymous said...

I often wonder why it is Republicans almost always type their comments in ALL CAPS on sites like this.

I also often wonder why it is they continue to support a man who has such an obvious disregard for others.

We simply MUST do whatever necessary to vote these people out of office in the next election.

For starters, I would recommend we ALL write our elected representatives in Washington and urge them to get rid of those evoting machines that leave no paper trail and can so easily be hacked. Remember, it's who COUNTS our votes that count!

Anonymous said...

What do you expect Bush to do about a possible earthquake. Should he weld the plates together with is heat vision. I know how about sew it up with really big needles. Maybe the French could surrender to the fault line. No, I gotit Al Fraken and Michael Moore can bore the fault line to death. Would they do that if Bush asked or would we have elect one of their puppets before they did anything but open their cake holes.

Look Liberals no caps!!!

Anonymous said...

Look all caps liberalpride must be a Republican.

Anonymous said...

By now, anonymous(es), most of us hardly have enough faith in Bush to expect that he would prevent violent acts of nature (haha)...

You can little blame the weather on anyone, but outrage is justified when citizens are allowed to rot in the streets in the several days after a storm which was not only predicted, but expected at Level 5.

Outrage is also justified when our domestic resources are stretched thin due to an out-of-control situation a majority of citizens had pre-existing moral objection to (yep, I done mentioned Iraq there. It was bound to come up).

It's hardly propoganda, anonymouses, to resent a complete lack of leadership at the highest level of government. In the extreme suffering of our brothers and sisters in the south, we learn what to expect should something similar - earthquake, for example - befall our country again. Within the next 3 years, that is.

No one needs to weld plates together or deflect future hurricane with the power of prayer- a simple show of giving a shit will suffice.

Anonymous said...

So if an earthquake takes place 5 years from now you reserve to blame whom ever is in charge?

Anonymous said...

While you lay blame think on this. This initial deployment and use of National Guard during natural domestic disasters is under the authority of the State Governor. Bush deployed active duty forces the second it was obvious the Democrat in the Governors office had no clue. The Mayor who is charge of the police sent his men and women in to a war zone unprepared for what they had to deal with. Lack of leadership seems to be on the shoulders local and state authorities.

Anonymous said...

Hey everybody, check this out.
The only time a Cat 3 or higher his hit on or near New Orleans since '69 a Republican has been in office.Camille in '69 was Nixon.
FiFi in '74 was Ford. Elena in '85 was Reagan. Andrew in '92 was Bush#1 and Katrina '05 Bush#2.

Maybe W should use the Super Secret Republican Hurricane Machine on Iraq.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Anonymous, I reserve [the right] to blame whoever is in charge 5 years from now not if an earthquake takes place - you miss my point - but if the response to the earthquake is insufficient, inappropriate, and/or delayed for no apparent reason. And if that person takes his time in cutting his vacation short to respond to the crisis.

And yes, I would even get pissed at a Democrat.

Anonymous said...

Hey, Everyone,

New Orleans has been a disaster waiting to happen for decades--a period that spans many local, state, and national administrations.

Please do some reading before you decide where to place the administrative blame for New Orlens tragidy.

Jeez.

Noah said...

Someone sure has some nerve to make a comment about doing their reading! One, it is understood that a lack of action has been a very serious and chronic problem well before anyone gave a rats ass about who good ol' G W was. The point is the pathetic and lame response RIGHT NOW to what is happening RIGHT NOW and what has been happening for what is now going on FOUR DAYS. Two, the comment about G W having to rescue the apparently "clueless Democratic Governor" clues us in on how ignorant you are and how disconnected you are from reality. A disaster of this scope could never be handled by the meager resources of local government that is the whole reason why an organziation like FEMA needs to exist in the first place!! Are you reading what i'm saying!? It is horrifying how vast the scope of inhumanity is that surfaces in so many people the more you try to defend this guy and his administration. I guess you just will not get it until you are one of the people left high and dry.

Anonymous said...

Bush had to initiate the National Guard befause they are NATIONALIZED right now, idiot.
Fact of the matter is Bush gave about 25% of what was requested 4 years ago that would have constructed better prevention methods. You can't hide from that fact. You people defending him are the same idiots that say Clinton was the worst president in history because of a sex scandal. Also, I would like to call out the Mayor of New Orleans for being an idiot for halting rescue ops to stop hungry "looters" from getting food. (Let's just forget about the DYING people, we've got bread and chips to save! Check this out:
http://stevegilliard.blogspot.com/2005/08/niggers-steal-whites-find.html

Grammarian@mindspring.com said...

If there's an earthquake 5 years from now, but in that time the government funded the agencies that might have helped, put together disaster plans that were reaasonable, and invested in suring up the city, then I wouldn't blame them. If they continue to ignore the signs, then I damn well would blame them.

Grammarian@mindspring.com said...

As soon as the country suffers a big disasters, these right-wing flakes all jump into action and start blogging defense of Bush. It's all they know how to do.

Anonymous said...

It seems Americas great enemy Fidel Castro showed much greater genuine concern for the victims of the Hurricane then that clueless idiot in charge of the whitehouse.

God (mother Nature) is punishing America because of the actions of the real Axis of Evil -the Bush Administration, the religious Right and the Corporations.

Anonymous said...

Someone in a previous post brought up the need to get rid of these new voting machines.
Walden O'Dell is the CEO of Diebold (maker of voting machines) and a consistent contributor to George Voinovich, the Repbublican senator from Ohio.

Odd that Ohio was the deciding state in the last stolen election.

Anonymous said...

bush had one job to do and he failed. period.
none of it's his fault but his reaction was and is a disgrace.

thats all.

Anonymous said...

The Emporer Has No Clothes. Homeland Security is all smoke and mirrors. We lost a major city. Let me say that again: The United States, the wealthiest and most powerful country in the world LOST A CITY. Hurricane Katrina shows that Federal preparedness in respect to a catastrophic national emergency is a farce. We don't have the resources immmediately available to be mobilized to help our own people - why else would it take almost a week to send in the National Guard? In Maryland during the Blizzard of 1995 the Guard was mobilized immediately, that is to say DURING the storm. States in the SE and East and Midwest have had gasoline price hikes of a dollar or more in the past week as well as petroleum shortages. The price of gasoline now rivals that of Europes.

What would happen to the US if we had another major Gulf Coast Hurricane? What we do? How would we act?

Let one up it: Let's have a series of terror alerts (remember those thinly veiled politically motivated fear tactics to get people re-elect Dubya?) or even better yet a catastrophic terrorist attack on the Gasoline pipelines and/or oil refineries? What would we do with THAT? What would happen? To me the answer is obvious! We'd be afraid and we would act out. BUT we'd be unable to do a da--ed thing militarily to those people who hit us or with our "security" forces because we are stretched too thin

We'd flush the economy down the toilet and possibly have civil uprisings due to sustained increased fuel and related costs.

Homeland Security is all smoke and mirrors. We Have No Clothes - And Deep Down We Know It.

Anonymous said...

Today is Saturday. I am a 46YO female in central MS, outside Jackson. Right now, as you debate who knows what about who to blame,etc I am just now getting my electricity back on after 5 days. Here in central MS, the storm ravaged us with 90+MPH winds. This isnt just a few branches down, folks. Trees are crashed into houses, businesses, schools. Power lines are down. Many communities do not have water, electricity and there is NO GASOLINE. Lines for gas at the few places that do have it or are slowly getting it, are MILES long. People have been sleeping in their cars on the HOPE that a gasoline MIGHT come to the station. Yesterday I saw a line up the street from dawn until 6PM. Finally there was no gas. Our local law enforcement is reduced to handling the long lines of angry, panic stricken people who cannot get to their relatives and firends to help with clean up, who can not get to work at local poultry factories, who cannot get to the hospitals that are bulging from evacuees, who cannot get to grocery stores to buy dry goods (oh yes, many stores have lost their inventory of frozen/refrigerated foods) . Ice is scarce, IF you can get to it with what little gas you have. The temp her is above 90, and our humidity is atrocius, as always. You have no idea what is happening to the people north of ground zero. Regardless of what you see on the national news, we are many in this state without basics even here in the capitol city area. Trucks are being used in more needy areas south of us. Our cities are bulging with homeless, disoriented people. What are we supposed to do to help them when we ourselves are struggling?

Well, here in MS we help by giving our last bit of gas to a neighbor, we open our homes to those who have no power, we walk to stores that are open and buy food for those who have none. We are at least trying to do SOMETHING USEFUL.You can debate into eternity who is at fault but it doesnt help us at this moment. If you have any ounce of humanity in you, you will get off your soapboxes and go right now, and i mean RIGHT NOW to a phone and call the local Red cross of other disaster relief organizations and make a donation. You will buy clothing, tolitries, bedding, etc and send them to shelters in our state. You will say prayers, or divert your positive thoughts to those stranded on highways and in buildings with no food and water. GO DO SOMETHING. And when you think you have done enough, DO MORE. Go help a neighbor or friend. Call your loved ones and tell them how lucky you are. You have no idea how lucky you are.

Those of us who live in the south have always known that New Orleans was at risk. THE US Army Corps of Engineers has asked for many years for a budget that could bolster and repair levees to prevent what just happened. It is public record that our president has cut funding for this purpose in favor of diverting funds to the war. Its too late to try and prove to idiots who know nothing about our area who could have helped prevent this tragedy. It does no good to try and show people without conscious and without a brain that our goventment has failed to respond in a TIMELY manner to save lives. Many things could have been done to prevent this national travesty. The question is: will we learn anything from it? Probably not, and that is the worst travesty of all.

Our fellow human beings in New Orleans and the MS gulf coast are living like animals becuase the federal govenment has no proper organizational skills to handle to immense natural disaster that has occurred. Just think what will happen if a MANMADE disaster attakcs us again, this time in more and more vunerable areas. I cant imagine anyone thingking that they are safe with the federal govenment looking after them. Fools. Shame on you. As you can see from the news, many people also thought they were in the hands of a caring govenment. Look where it got them.

I leave you to go and finish clearing debris from yards, and to scrape mud from carport that came with flooding. I pray for gasoline today. Just up the road, somone pulled a knife on another person for gas. In Hattiesburg, a man shot his sister in the head for a bag of ice. Gougers are everywhere.We are under immense pressure here .

Why havent our OIL COMPANIES offered to give up some of their 50% profits and allow gas prices to be lowered for ONE MONTH. They have the capacity to relieve suffering for so many, and they have done nothing to make a real contribution. It would be so easy for them to help. Instead, only our musicians, actors, and others are organizing to create relief.

Today, I am proud to be a Mississippian, and I am ashamed to be an AMERICAN. I am ashamed of my president. Like the CEO of a large business, HE is ultimately in charge. Pray that he comes to his senses and somehow gives the orders and makes the decisions that will save lives, even though it is woefully late for too many.

Think about me and the millions like me who are trying to get by this Saturday, trying to make sense of things and trying to help out as best we can under limited resources. We will survive, even without the help of those who could make it better. But could you?

Anonymous said...

The thing that really get me is the fact you republicans impeached Clinton for his sex scandal that, killed no one, not even his marriage yet,but this guy, with the wily grin, has sent a lot of our guys and gals to be murdered in a for away place supposedly defending America from what? He lied about WMD in Iraq, diverting attention from bin laden. This man has lied almost from the beginning of his presendency till now.
Wake up America before it's too late. This guy only care about his own and fathers' agendas.

Anonymous said...

Imagine what it would be like to stand and walk out of the door and leave everything else behind you. Your house, your possessions, your photos, your toothbrush, everything. Now imagine walking down a flooded street and finding dry refuge with thousands of others at a location where there is no water, food, or even a place to go to the bathroom. But you have hope because you believe in your country that any moment those big green trucks will be rolling up to drop off boxes of food and water. But that day the trucks do not show. Where are they? We know they see us because there are dozens of helicopters flying over with letters on them like WBHS, WNBC, and some even say Coast Guard. Where is the water? Perhaps tomorrow, but no one comes except news people and cameras. They have to know we are here, we are on TV! For over 4 days they sit and wait.

The majority sit and wait and do not cause problems. The extreme minority, are looting things other than necessities. Those that take food, diapers, toilet paper, toothpaste, and I think I can even make an argument for shoes and clothes are in survival mode and in my mind, this is OK. On the other hand, the TV and appliance looters are vile and wrong. Does stealing a TV constitute a death sentence? Again, in my mind, no. Does robbing a refuge of his or her money, jewelry, or worst of all rape constitute a death sentence? Well, I am glad I am not a Nat'l Guardsman and see this happening. It would be tough decision and in this situation of martial law, the guardsman is pretty much the judge, jury, and in some cases, the executioner. But where is the help?

Where is the help? Since 9/11 the Federal Government has spent tons of money on securing our well being. They have created a new agency called Homeland Security. This agency has told us that in the times of national crisis, they have created a system that will respond and save lives. We already had a system in place called FEMA which just in the past couple years staged a virtual disaster in New Orleans and made predictions on what might happen in the event of a killer hurricane. I am sure they spent millions on the rehearsal and probably very little on preparation. Another perfect example of government lip service. Once the politicians started showing up on the news casts, one of the first things they did was to praise themselves and their efforts to hurry and pass a bill that would release funds for supplies. Why wasn't the money approved and staged days before the storm hit? Any one of us can get a personal line of credit. Then if we need it, its there. Why can't the Feds do this? The storm hit on Monday and it took until Thursday for Congress to convene? The storm hit on Monday and before Bush even surveyed the destruction, he spent Wednesday in San Diego giving a speech at the Navel Air Station in support of the war. Now where do you really think his priorities are. Of course he did cut his 5 week vacation short by 2 days to return to Washington and help get the disaster relief going. I believe to coin a phrase he wanted to, " get er done ". Thousands of people stranded in New Orleans and he first goes to San Diego to pump up the war. It takes him 4 days to get back to Washington. Where are his priorities? He took a midnight flight to Washington to sign a bill to save Terry Shaivo back in March. Think about this. He left Texas on Air Force One late night the moment he heard that Congress passed the Terry Shaivo bill. Took time out of his schedule to fly to Washington to save one person who had absolutely zero chance of survival and to sign into law a bill that would stop her own husband from letting her die with some dignity. This guy is no leader. He is a follower. He follows the directives of others who tell him what to do, what to say, and where to go.

Ok so now what? There will be tens of thousands of people who will be left with nothing. Since the Feds will be slow and red tape for assistance will be unreal, the people will forced to rely on private agencies for relief. We all have an obligation here. We all need to help in some fashion. Take a moment to offer up a little help whether it is monetary or through a donation of clothing. Anything is a help.

Do what you can.

Anonymous said...

I am in Florida and during last years hurricanes my heart and my wife's heart has been breaking for the people on the gulf coast. during last years hurricane we were fairly prepared for the storms. My cousin happen to visit on the morning after Charley from NE Florida. He said he did not know of how bad the storm was. He asked how he could help. I told him to go back to NE Florida and bring back as much water, power cords, gas and chainsaws as he could carry.

When he returned we he had the needed supplies. We began going about the surrrounding towns helping cut trees from other peoples homes and giving water to as many people as possbile.

As I gathered with friends and neighbor we discussed the response from George Bush and the federal government and we came to the conclusion that the road to the whitehouse was paved through our homes and counties affected by the hurricanes. We knew because of this fact and the fact that the brother of the president was our governor that the calvary would be there soon. Sure enough the calvary came quickly to our aid as we predicted.

Bush could not be elected without Florida. He could not be on vacation during this crisis.

As I watched the devestation from the gulf hurricane, I remebered during the tenure of Bush 1 the people in Miami after hurricane Andrew begging for help from the federal government on their roof tops. This made me understand that at the time of Andrew there was a Democrat in the governor's mansion.

Is it not true that the governor of Lousiana is a democrat? What do you know?

It is so unfortunate that the republicans in power will stoop to such a low level in a time of crisis. If only the governor of Louisiana was a republican would the aid have gotten there sooner?
How about if the president was in the political fight of his life would he have come off of vacation sooner?

My heart breaks for these poor souls along the gulf coast and so should yours. There was not an election to be won or no republican in the statehouse of Lousiana.

God have mercy on your soul Mr. Bush.

Anonymous said...

Can George W. be impeached for his behavior? I was curious.
This president is a "trigger" that is setting everything in motion. He was placed in office for a reason. And if his brother is the next president we're in more trouble than we can imagine. "W" may be listening a his god but not my God.

Anonymous said...

The thing is there was an article in DISCOVER magazine last year which described exactly what would happen in New Orleans if a hurricane hit. Our government could have been more prepared but they didn't want to cause a panic in America.
An eartquake will hit California soon. There is nothing that anyone can do. It will be beyond catastrophic proportions. People have to prepare themselves and listen. They cannot rely on the government for answers they need to listen to God.

Anonymous said...

I have been in the Tampa area visiting and I am in shock by the response of the local citizens and the newspapers. The emphasis is on the looting and the comments "that the people should have gotten out". I am hearing no expression of compassion and also a total denial of facts. The Tampa Tribune ran a cartoon depicicting a black male up to his knees in water carrying a TV with the caption: Just trying to meet my basic needs. Feels like 1950 in the South. No compassion, it is just black people shooting they should be shot. Seriously this is what I am hearing. When you try to engage in reasonable discussion based on fact, you are yelled at. I had an officer from the sherrif department call me stupid and an idiot, but was not able to offer any intelligent dialogue about the situation. There is no outrage or demand for accoutability from leadership. This is really scary. Now I know why so many black votes were discounted in Florida. This is unbelievable here. Smug, arrogant racisim.

Anonymous said...

To all of you anonymous Bush-huggers please get your facts RIGHT! The Louisiana gov. gave her soveriegn consent to Dubya' to take over New Orleans BY AN OFFICIAL STATE LETTER sent directly to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. on August 26th... Einstiens! It was acknowledge by Dubya' himself within 48 hours! So is this another (or similiar) case of let's all ignore the Downing Street Memo or what? Let's see how Herr Roverer (Karl Rove) will spin this official memo! Hey Karl! Figured out how to spin Valerie Plame yet... you truth-twisting sack of sh... (what's the opposite of nazi?)

Spooky

PS - I just took a look at Rush's web site (their Rosetta-Stone of Truth)... It is so full of sh...(what's the opposite of shame?). NONE of what he said on the site either true or verifiable.

Random sample: "Sean Penn bales out his OWN boat"? WTF? ABC's Gary Larsen is a Bush-hugging lying pollster 55% percent of Americans say "Bush is not to blame"? Hmmm... that would mean that the British TNS Corp. polled 143,000,000 fully vetted Americans? Did you get a call from TNS polling lately? No? Hmmmm....

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