Chuck Hagel Shows How the GOP Split Is Helping...the GOP

The GOP is experiencing two painful, traumatic crises right now. As illustrated by comments Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel made today, however, Democrats, risk conflating the two crises. It's a risk because one crisis offers Democrats opportunity; the other poses a serious political threat. Here they are:

• President Bush's low political and personal popularity
• The resulting split among Bush's former supporters

Pres. Bush's waning popularity should be a (metaphorical) godsend for the Democrats. But not for all the reasons they might think. Pres. Bush's low popularity, in and of itself, carries zero implications for his political agenda. He honestly doesn't care whether he's popular, or his plans are; he knows he's right, so he'll ram his plans through no matter how unpopular they are, if he can.

However, whether he can depends on whether he has support in Congress. And Bush's support in Congress is waning just as fast (now) as his popular support is. This is good news in the short term for Democrats hoping to block Bush's legislative agenda between now and next November.

But this is bad news for Democrats next November -- and therefore potentially bad news for all of us after next November.

Here's what Hagel said on Sunday's Face the Nation about Iraq:

The longer American troops stay there, the more attractive we are as targets and excuses for insurgents and Sunnis.

And here's what he said about Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers:

One other point I'd make, this nonsense about sexism and elitism. The fact is, this is an elite group of individuals. The fact is, we want an elite group of individuals. I'm not so sure I want my next-door neighbor, as much as I like him or her, to be on the Supreme Court because they're nice people.

Hagel's comments on Iraq are, of course, nothing new. And many bloggers before me have pointed out that Democrats have already ceded to Republicans what should have been the Excalibur of 2006 and 2008 -- that Bush botched the war by its execution and very initiation.

But Hagel's comments about Miers -- specifically, about elitism -- suggest that things are even worse for Democrats than we feared. Republicans are now championing elitism. Hagel didn't just cop to practicing elitism, he explained quickly and convincingly why elitism is a necessary and desireable part of the process.

This is a value that should, on the face of it, be obvious. Elitism is, essentially, betterism. Better is good. Doesn't seem like that should be a tough argument. But now, Democrats have let Republicans become the defenders of that most liberal sentiment: Elitism.

Pres. Bush's low popularity should have given Democrats a tool to block bad legislation. And it has. But Democrats have missed the point of why it's a tool to block bad legislation. It's a tool to block bad legislation because Democrats can use the consent of congressional Republicans to tie them to Bush in 2006 and 2008.

That's why the GOP split poses a threat to the Democrats. If Democrats allow the GOP to split from Bush -- on faith issues over Miers, on fiscal issues over the deficit, on martial issues over Iraq -- they'll have lost the one thing they had to hit Republicans with at election time: Their complicity with Bush.

By allowing Republicans to take the lead now in criticizing Bush, by failing to point out the hypocrisy of such Republican critiques, Democrats are forfeiting their ability to hold Republicans accountable for their empowerment and defense of Bush. If they don't get their act together soon, they'll have willingly, if unwittingly, laid down the best weapon they had to fight back.

And without it, we all stand a greater chance that Republicans will maintain their grip in 2006, and even 2008, perpetuating the effects of their bad policies. And if that happens, the country loses again, and Bush wins one final time.